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Old 10-17-2019, 11:18 AM   #994
welfare
RS has made me the bitter person i am today!
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jmac View Post
Polls don't use a large enough sample size and they're "accuracy" is based on outdated methods.

As usual for election time, Facebook is flooded with stupidity.

Example: "If you know any green voters in these 6 ridings, tell them to vote NDP. If they split the vote progressives will lose." Don't even get me started on voting "strategically."

Of course, no one reads the article which says:
https://advancedsymbolics.com/headin...-up-for-grabs/


First you have the huge red flag of a poll that's paid for by a union that is advocating for people to vote for the party that most heavily favours unions.

Secondly, assuming it's even unbiased, most ridings have between 100,000 - 110,000 people. Political polls have proven to be incredibly unreliable this decade as they're based on a decades old statistical formula, which only requires a very small percentage of randomly-chosen individuals to be "reasonably accurate." Basically, your costs go up linearly and your accuracy has diminishing returns (square root) the more people you poll.

Third, it's an AI-influenced poll that analyzes social media heavily. Singh was being talked about a lot after the debate, but that doesn't mean people will vote for him.


I'll be shocked if the Green Party doesn't win Cowichan-Malahat-Langford and the poll has them 4th. The number of Green lawn signs north of the Malahat/south of Ladysmith absolutely dwarfs any other party.
I wouldn't say these polls are completely random. I know with Angus Reid one of the first questions asked is the ethnicity of the participant, then gender. Trying to to achieve a specific representation of the demographic. This of course assumes that specific ethnicities and genders will vote accordingly. Clearly not an accurate assumption, IMO. Not at all.
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