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There's no single reason as to what cooled the market however policy induced market correction likely suppressed any immediate upswing in the interim, which is what policy driven legislation is meant to do. The market came to a grind in summer 2016 when the FBT came into play - but that was something new to many vested players in the market which was bull since the early 2000s. None of us knew what to expect and I think that was the reason the market reacted 180, yet returned to normalcy by next spring.
The effects from EHT and Spec Tax was more encompassing which is why I think it has created more resistance in the market and why the destination of where the recovery will lead is a little more unknown. Our boards loves the "glass half full" perspective so even with what looks like improving sales numbers for the past 5 consecutive months, prices are still down y-o-y.
There is still reason be bullish in the market:
1. The run-up from the last 20 years and the amount of increased equity from many homeowners looking to spend that new wealth within the market.
2. Significant re-development/gentrification and displacement. This causes huge trickle down effects in the market. Look at all the working class neighbourhoods being uprooted and "bougied".
3. Presale construction and deliberate inventory control.
Unless policy controls are in place at the federal level, there is reason for people to be optimistic at the market as it feels like the sellers and buyers this time can wait it out, in other words, the bottom isn't falling out.
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"Harvey Belafonte ain't black. He's just a good looking white guy dipped in caramel. " - Archie Bunker
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