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Originally Posted by BlackV62K2
Too late to the TSLA party?
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I'm long in TSLA, so, I might be biased AF.
But I do believe that the worst is behind TSLA.
They have a great line-up. With Semi, Cybertruck, Model Y and Roaster coming, really what TSLA is constrained is only by its cell production capabilities (among many partners)
A few often used points by shorts, and my refutal:
1. US rebate reached the end, demand will fell off the cliff.
Tesla now works on a global scale. Sure US is/was its largest market, its decline due to the rebate ($1800 between 2019 and 2020) will be offset by increase in other markets.
2. Tesla is deep in debt and needs to raise more money.
It's a company in the middle of an explosive expansion growth. That needs money. Nevertheless, they have 0 issue raising money. I'd rather them to be borrowing 100B in order to become a trillion company rather than a billion dollar company who has problem even raising a few hundred millions. And when as long as their growth can sustain those debt, it only means that the company will value that much more once it reaches the other end.
3. All other car manufacturers are coming out with EVs, Tesla can't compete!
It took Porsche a few billion dollars and years in development, it still couldn't quite match the Model S that came out 7yrs ago. Tesla advantage in the EV field is tremendous. They pretty much own the largest battery cell production (Giga factory with Panasonic) that itself build more cells than no.2 and 3 combined. Tesla also has the best EV motors on the market. They reach further while being the fastest. Their software is also the absolute most advanced in industry, bar none; EV or not.
Last, but not least, why am I so confident that Tesla will remain a leader in the EV field? Because its vision is totally different than the ICE manufacturers. They see EV as a niche. So when they bring something on the market, all they see is Tesla. They all want to one-up Tesla somehow. I have no doubt... they will succeed in a certain extent. Tesla, OTOH, has its eyes on the ENTIRE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY. Their mission statement is to accelerate the WORLD to move to sustainable energy. When the competition only see Tesla as a car manufacturer, and its current volume as a guidance... that's going to ALWAYS make them to think niche rather taking the necessary steps for the bigger picture.
Look at the Porsche Taycan as an example. It barely beat the CURRENT Model S in certain metrics (while being crushed in others). What did Tesla do? Well, they sent a functional prototype to Nürburgring and beat Porsche's time by 20SECONDS. And this is coming Summer 2020. How long will it take Porsche to develop the next gen Taycan to beat that?! And by the time they come up with something better, Tesla is at a whole other place already.
So many arguments of "Tesla-killer" is based on the assumption that once a competitor finally beats Tesla at something, Tesla would simply stay in that place while the competitor will just keep on beating. I'm like...
This is Elon Musk's company... a guy whose other achievement includes sending a few rockets up to the orbits AND land them back vertically. One might like him or not, but betting against a guy this smart has more risk than I'm willing to tolerate as I don't think I'm remotely as smart.
All this brings to finally answer your question...
, I think the current Tesla valuation, after shooting up over 100% within a few months might be a bit much, depending how you look at it. One end is that even we invest in future values, this has gone too fast, and too far and all the speculation might require some time for the company to actually catch up to the valuation. Alternatively, you can see it as Tesla simply recovering from where it was a year ago and all that drop down to 180-ish was unfounded. Regardless which side you take, if you are investing in the longer terms, like 3-5years, I can totally see Tesla become a much larger company with its market cap several fold vs. its current.
Disclosure: Again, I'm long TSLA, I'm purely discussing my reasoning. Take your own risks.