Quote:
Originally Posted by twitchyzero
that's a transmission model aka forecast, from pundits on the other side of the world using publicly available data
unless some top health official from China blows the whistle we'll probably never know, everything else is basically hearsay at this point
i do feel bad for those on the ground
i think for managing spread/hysteria, China's already doing much better than 2003...it aint easy running 1.4B in times of crisis
|
Right, the goal is to figure out how many people are actually sick. They used that model, saying China reported about 5%. I would believe that number in a second, and in fact it is possible a huge underestimate if anything.
More estimates coming in, HKU head Gabriel Leung (who got egg on his face earlier for dumb comments) spoke about it today
He says 25,000 cases in Wuhan, with a possible up to 43,000
Locking down Wuhan isn't going to work anymore
Each major city in China is going to have hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of very sick people in the next few months.
Blocking people from Wuhan isn't nearly enough. The whole point of "two systems" is so HK can protect itself from this sort of thing. There is literally no argument against it, other than "losing face"
This may push the protests straight into chaotic riot territory