Quote:
Originally Posted by Hehe
If you look at Italian data alone, for anywhere without a HIGHLY (cap for emphasis) advanced medical infrastructure, the mortality rate is around 20%. In all other countries, where you can count the cases with your fingers, it's still ok and death rate is still low because their current infrastructure can handle it. Korea, Italy, Iran... etc all had major outbreak because their medical system could no longer handle. Take all that into consideration and get back to me to tell me that the mortality is low.
I'm not going to be too pessimistic. I do think people are being unreasonable with their behaviors in this situation. But the fact is, this virus might very well be the worst in our lifetime. However, if we, as a society, take the necessary procedures, like avoid mass crowd gathering, constant sanitizing our hands and avoid unnecessary trips abroad or even just to the airport, we can reduce the potential of further major outbreak by a magnitude.
If China's data is to be believed... (which I don't think... but let's just do for the sake of argument), harsh interventions are working for them (province-wide lockdown). And if we can do a more civilized, but similar effectiveness approach, we could reduce the spread by many folds and even eradicate in countries like ours where we don't have many cases to begin with.
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What if fear does affect how deadly this virus has become? Healthy individuals who are able to self-recover, because of fear (due to SARS, MERS, etc.), checks in with the health care system (whether through hotline, GP, emergency).
In turn, a portion of those who are at risk gets delayed or no treatment at all, dies, death tolls increases, people see the news, and panic even more, goes to the health care system even with a single cough. Then it becomes a cycle.
I am by no means equating this virus with the common flu.
Also, does R0 portray how deadly/harmful the virus is, or how infectious it is? I believe they are two different things?