Quote:
Originally Posted by chinook79
So many people trying to catch falling dagger here..
GDP forecast of pretty much every country in the world is expected to be cut drastically..
North America is just beginning to see corona virus outbreak.. If you follow what's happening in Europe, you can assume that things will soon be a lot.. a LOT worse than now..
Many industries will soon or have already cut number of jobs. Unemployment rate hike is unavoidable.
The only two countries that are recovering from Corona outbreak now is China and South Korea. China have absolute control over people which is not possible for western countries. South Korea's approach to this virus was nothing shy of stunning: complete transparency even if it means short term loss of millions of dollars daily for businesses. Canada? do we even know anything about whereabouts infected has been to? not even where they live in fear of people panicking..
Worst is far.. far from over.. it's just beginning..
Sure the stock is much better bargain now than it was a month ago and it will likely be higher 2 years from now.
However, I think the dagger is still falling. I wouldn't jump into the market right now though for the FOMO.
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Many truth in your post, but there's something I want to add and some I beg to differ.
It's super hard to buy the bottom. Retail investors always try, but I've rarely heard many success other than some pure luck. And big investors like Berkshire or Blacksone... etc, they rarely EVER try to do it. Because it's not about picking the lowest point, but rather a LOW point.
Take a look at an example I discussed with my friend the other day. The shares of BRK.A went from the top of 130k in Sep/08 to the low of 75k or so in Mar/09. In between, they've had a few points of 80-90ks that went up and downnn until 75k. But if you invested in it for the long term and only cashed out at the relative recent highs before the crash, a share was 300k+.
So, if you looked at that example, for people who bought at 80k or 90k, did they make the bad decision to buy in? If you look at it at the low of 75k... yeah... but if you look at it from just a month ago... they did GREAT! So, it's not about picking the lowest point, but rather a relative cheap point where the shares have a lot of potentials.
So, while it's true you don't try to buy a falling share, you should always try to find a REASONABLE VALUE of a stock. And if you bought it at a good value... you'd always be rewarded in the long term assuming it was a good company.