|
Second the too soon notion.
It took 6mth roughly for the 2008 crisis to go from top to bottom and then it lingered around there for another 3-4mth before it started the longest bull market in recent history.
We are in a much bigger bubble (this part is easy to understand, right?) and deeper shit to deal with (pretty much unprecedented in modern history. Our medical technology has come a long way vs. the Spanish Flu era, and yet we have no way to contain this).
I wouldn't worry too much about the ups and downs... you might be able to profit a little bit in short term plays like Zoom/Costco/Amazon, but the general market is at its very early stage of decline. When we start getting all Q1/Q2 reports, that's when things get interesting. Because say Amazon... it could have a terrific quarter. But if investors cast doubt on its continuous success, then the shares will drop. SP are always forward thinking.
As for Disney, it's a great company. It's literally the most powerful media company on the planet now. However, its success might ultimately be its demise. God knows how long we are going to drag on with the virus. DIS can't afford to keep pushing back on its blockbuster release dates and keeping Disneyland/world/park closed. And if you look at its free cashflow, which is down to its lowest point in recent years thanks to the purchase of Fox portfolio. Will new subscribers to Disney+ be enough to offset the decrease on all those major income streams for Disney? I have my doubts.
__________________
Nothing for now
|