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Totally agree, the pandemic has obliterated Vancouver's massive food industry and a good number of those jobs are likely never coming back. I don't think there is any doubt lost jobs will cause people to have to sell their homes and go back to renting. I just feel Vancouver has more cushion than other places. Not to say prices won't go down, but there is enough hidden capital sloshing around that the effect will be less than in other Canadian cities.
On paper Vancouverites have lower incomes, but that does not account for families with income earned/capital stored in other countries. (Ex. the typical Vancouver 20yr old Ferrari driver declares, and makes, 20k income but can draw on family money in China when he totals the Ferrari and wants an AMG to replace it. Extreme example, but this applies to a lot of foreign students turned permanent residents) Another example is the whole underground Alipay/WeChat economy. Maybe not massive, but money stored and income earned in those accounts are never declared. Vancouver in general doesn't have low income, people here are just better than most at hiding it.
The debt to income ratio, while a useful metric, I think is a bit skewed in places like Vancouver and Toronto because we will always be the most indebted cities in Canada because of our high RE prices. Lower declared incomes in Vancouver will also help skew the ratio. But the reality is, Vancouver RE hasn't been shaped by income levels the past 20 years, it's these external forces that have pushed and kept prices up. Lastly, ultra low interest rates have allowed for such a high DTI ratio to be somewhat sustainable and I don't see rates going up soon.
As someone looking to buy in the next couple years (and without wishing poorly on anyone) I do hope you're right and the market has a bit of a correction. I just don't see it being as big of one as anywhere else in Canada.
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