Quote:
Originally Posted by threezero
Analyst Price target and upgrades are a joke nowadays. Nothing is based on fundamental, PT gets upgrade because the stock moves, not necessary because it deserves it. Even with TSLA's success, the stock (and many others) are still way way overvalued.
For those of you familiar with options. Look into the theory on how TSLA has been push into its current price in part due to the action on its option chain, retail FOMO and how market makers have to response by buying up share. In term pushing it even higher.
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First thing first, I'm not looking to start an argument. Just a good educational discussion.
So, can you share why you think TSLA is overvalued? As a shareholder in the long (I'm talking like 5-10yrs holding), I'm genuinely interested in any theory that would fundamentally challenge what Tesla and Musk are doing.
Comparing to legacy automakers, Tesla valuation and its volume sounds a bit absurd. However, when it comes to EV, which is the future of auto industry, like it or not, as many countries/territories are setting deadlines to ban ICE cars outright, Tesla is so far ahead that with all the resources legacy automakers have, they are having problems coming up with a viable competitor.
How many "Tesla Killer" have we already heard? None came close what Tesla is capable of doing (both business and product). You name it, Benz, VAG, BMW, Toyota... etc. The closest competitor to Tesla is Hyundai/Kia. And they never dared to call their product Tesla killer because they know their products are in a different segment.
This to me, it looks like back when the first iPhone was out, and EVERY legacy dumb phone makers failed to adapt. Now they are irrelevant. None of the top 5 phone manufacturers today had any major presence in dumb phone industry and this speaks volume; never take past performance as a future representation. It can offer some guidance on the team's ability to execute, but that ends there.
Thus, I think the fact is that the ICE portion actually became a liability or burden for legacy players instead of an advantage. Their toolings, engineers, and even economies of scale in volume help them very little if any. And the fact that they HAVE to consider both ICE and EV at the same time makes them highly vulnerable to failure when competing with Tesla in EV. I'd go as far as saying I see Rivian, a company that has yet make a single car, as a more valid competitor to Tesla than ANY automakers out there.
And this is before diving into the software part of Tesla as well as the energy, Cybertruck, and all future products.
EV would continue to grow exponentially relative to their ICE counterparts in years to come. And Tesla single handily commands pretty much the entire available battery cell industry. The scale advantage is actually on Tesla side vs. legacy players when it comes to EV.