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i honestly do think trump doesn't have the 'trump' card anymore by being an outsider.
last time even some dems and tons of otherwise sane voters voted for trump because he was a wildcard and they didn't want the status quo anymore. hillary was seen as too much of an establishment candidate and after a nasty and dirty primary against bernie, it left a sour taste in the mouths of many democrats. of course 12.2% is still a legitimate chance, but it's not directly comparable to 2016 in terms of trump having the wildcard hand. if the election is fair and there is no voter suppression then i think trump will surely lose, however voter suppression is alive and well in the US.
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