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Your analysis doesn't really do the math correctly to fully compare the two options.
It is intuitive that if you choose to pay down your mortgage, the exact amount you save is: [amount you paid down] x [mortgage interest rate] x [X years you are analyzing].
If you take that same amount of money, and invest it in your TFSA, the amount you have after X years is:
[same amount] x [total return] x [X years].
If the total return on investment is higher than your mortgage rate, mathematically, the second calculation MUST be higher. Therefore, if in 5 years your mortgage is now 10%, you would be able to sell your TFSA, pay down the mortgage at that time, and you'd be further ahead because you'd have paid down more on that date than you would have saved by prepaying it up front.
-Mark
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I'm old now - boring street cars and sweet race cars.
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