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At this point, I think Russia / Putin is neither planning to go to war nor posturing. Instead, it is gauging the international community -- well, mostly the Western World -- 's reaction to its Ukraine ambitions, and trying to determine what their best next step would be. If they think they can "successfully pull the stunt off", then they will take up more drastic action. If the Western World comes back with an over-the-top threat, they will look for some underhanded way to still spin a propaganda / political victory out of a military stay of action.
IMO, Russia will not be deterred if they only get slapped with sanctions. Sanctions and condemnations have been thrown at Russia for the Crimea annexation, but obviously that did not change the annexation plans one bit.
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