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The fundamental problem with real estate, at least residential, is how our policy made out to be.
1. Supply: when city and municipalities make it hard to develop anything at all in the name of "zoning", you create an artificial barrier for supplies. Instead, there should be a plan. Say all RS1 where only single dwelling is allowed, it's allowed to go double dwelling after 25yrs, RS4, where double is already allowed, is ok to go for say double FAR in 25yrs. This way, you create a time-locked increase in supply and the market would only increase as far as knowing they will double the supply every 25yrs.
Right now, we expect that all the areas are limited as is. Yes, there's rezoning and variance that one can apply, but that's a lengthy and difficult process that only developers (small and big) have the time and resources to do.
2. Demand: I see this more as the ability for people to pay. We have promoted dual income. But the truth is, this has created inflationary components in assets that historically kept up with inflation. Right now, people are bidding multi-millions for a duplex, many call it a problem with a low-interest rate and loose monetary policy. But no one ever bothered to look at the workforce component.
When everyone, men and women are working, they create 2 things: higher total income per household, and higher total workforce.
This suppressed the wage increase (because it's easier to find people) and generated an inflation on fixed assets because a household can pay more. But what if we introduce policies that promote single income family? We remove a portion (men and women) of workforce, increase the pay and the housing price in the long run. After all, people can only pay as much as they can afford. If there's a reduction of 25% of workforce, we should increase the hourly pay by 25%, and lower the price of RE by 25% across the board.
We have long cherished women's participation in the workforce, and I agree that they should. But we never discussed that by adding all these new supply of people, we pushed down wage greatly. Instead, we should create policy that make double income undesirable unless both are highly productive and running their own business (that generates job). Otherwise, one of them should stay at home, either men or women... doesn't matter. The idea is to not add further supply to the workforce.
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Nothing for now
Last edited by Hehe; 01-21-2022 at 08:35 AM.
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