I agree with everything you've said in your post except for this SWIFT bit.
Russia has indicated before that they will treat getting dropped from SWIFT as the equivalent of declaring war on Russia. I don't see how the US economy would suffer all that much since the US doesn't have strong economic ties with Russia. In fact, if the US can somehow increase its shale oil production, it can capitalize on the opportunity on a Russia oil and gas boycott.
Germany is going to hurt a lot if they cannot easily conduct business with Russia. I think it would be in their long term interest to shift away from their energy dependence on Russia, but that will certainly bring about some serious short and medium term pain.
If Russia can be cut off from SWIFT, I think it will weaken their country dramatically, although its normal citizens will also suffer. But the difficult part is how Russia wouldn't go nuclear ballistic if it happens.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pastarocket
If the US and its allies remove Russia from the SWIFT system for fund transfers for banks, then the US and German economies would suffer. Banks across the world need SWIFT in order to do business. Companies depend on the SWIFT system in order to do fund transfers for their operations.
Biden and his European allies have weak hands in this high stakes poker game now. Russia has the upper hand at the poker table.
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