[supafamous]

I'm a skeptic that rates will rise a lot (from .25% to 2%) b/c I think there's too much fragility in the economy for that to happen. I suspect that gov'ts will all let inflation (4-5% vs 1-3%) ride higher than normal until they see more stability in the economy. The betting man in me says we get to 1% this year and see 1.5% next year.

As for housing prices - there's no crash happening in my view but we should see a slowdown or stability show up b/c of the rate increases. I just think the housing shortage is way too severe to push enough people out of the market - I think demand is so much higher than supply that interest rates would have to go WAY higher to cause a "crash" (I think we need more than half the buyers to quit the market to see any real downturn). The stress test already weeds out a lot of people who want to buy and we still see craziness in the market.