Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp
China is probably going to take a look at how harshly the sanctions affected Russia, and nope the fuck out of any ideas of actual invasion anywhere
Now will they decide to rely less on the world economy because of it? Russia gives them somewhat of a chance to. They can hardly afford to in order to keep things going the way they are, but it's possible.
They're at a crossroads now... Either take the opportunity to have closer than ever ties to the west, who will be more inviting than ever right now, or shut out even further away.
I think it's hard to predict, because it all comes down to what one person decides to do.
Here's a good thread on it
https://twitter.com/zhaot2005/status...69321179324418 |
Agree on a lot of those points, been thinking about a lot along similar lines lately watching this play out. While China and Russia are similar in a lot of ways, China is way further prepared for success should they try to pull something like this off.
A few points that differentiate them:
On economy and dependence on the West. Russia is all bark and little to no bite so far as they're far too entrenched with the world economy to decouple as they've been forced to suddenly with all the sanctions. They do not have capacity to be self reliant.
China, on the other hand has been playing the long game and is so much more prepared for a decoupling should they be forced to. Examples are everywhere in almost every sector. Their policies set in place long ago have allowed them to "re-create" most things that the west have made. Internet and control of information? Chinese facebook, Chinese twitter, Chinese google, Chinese youtube. These all exist and sanctions and shutdowns would not affect them at all.
Control of everyday necessities and tech? Chinese phone companies, Chinese car companies, Chinese designed and produced airplanes. Chinese almost everything as their policies of requiring western companies to share their tech to gain access to the Chinese market. This is likely one of the most shrewd and significant policies enacted by the Chinese Government to propel their economy forward at a significant pace.
Access to raw materials and natural resources? China has made significant investment moves on the African continent and its quite obvious to see lending billions and billions to curry the favor of all these African nations is not simple altruistic. They are buying their way and ensuring unimpeded access both during peace-time and potential war-time to the rich resources these nations could provide.
As for the military failures and lack of moral. Putin basically blindsided the troops on the ground and possibly their own generals by announcing this intervention. As passionate as his excuses tried to tug at the heartstrings of the "One Russia" and shared heritage of the Russion and Ukrainian people... It obviously didn't work as you see the battle playing out.
China on the other hand, has been playing the information and brain-washing of their people and ultimately the decision-makers/military that Taiwan is and always part of their territory for decades. This constant propaganda is shoved down their throats from birth. Unfortunate as it may be, the soldiers that China would be sending out would be way more "patriotic" and determined in their mission to carry out as directed. The fighting and decision making from top to bottom would be vastly more swift, deadly, and without hesitation.
Furthermore, this move by Russia just further proves to China that what they've been doing for the past decade or two is correct and they'll likely double down on that approach. Building out their internal economy, steal lie and cheat however much you can from the West so that sanctions and a complete de-coupling can no longer hurt you. They're not fully there yet I don't think, but they are way closer to being ready than ever before.
Worse yet, they get to further learn from every mis-step that Russia takes during this conflict.
Can only hope that the west gets their shit together and learns from this as well to find long term solutions to counter, but it might already be too late quite honestly. If the US, EU et al think similar sanctions will prevent or de-escalate a conflict in Taiwan... well I fear for the worst.
In words RS can surely understand. Russia = Too Soon Junior. China is going to be a completely different beast entirely.