Quote:
Originally Posted by Teriyaki
... China is way further prepared for success should they try to pull something like this off.
A few points that differentiate them:
On economy and dependence on the West. Russia is all bark and little to no bite so far as they're far too entrenched with the world economy to decouple as they've been forced to suddenly with all the sanctions. They do not have capacity to be self reliant.
China, on the other hand has been playing the long game and is so much more prepared for a decoupling should they be forced to. Examples are everywhere in almost every sector. Their policies set in place long ago have allowed them to "re-create" most things that the west have made. Internet and control of information? Chinese facebook, Chinese twitter, Chinese google, Chinese youtube. These all exist and sanctions and shutdowns would not affect them at all.
Control of everyday necessities and tech? Chinese phone companies, Chinese car companies, Chinese designed and produced airplanes. Chinese almost everything as their policies of requiring western companies to share their tech to gain access to the Chinese market. This is likely one of the most shrewd and significant policies enacted by the Chinese Government to propel their economy forward at a significant pace.
Access to raw materials and natural resources? China has made significant investment moves on the African continent and its quite obvious to see lending billions and billions to curry the favor of all these African nations is not simple altruistic. They are buying their way and ensuring unimpeded access both during peace-time and potential war-time to the rich resources these nations could provide.
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I think you are grossly overestimating China's ability to be self-reliant. One positive effect of 'globalization', which China has greatly benefitted from, is the golden handcuff that makes everyone's economy reliant on the rest of the world. China's economy is fueled with debt (only possible with access to global capital markets) and their economic growth is propped up by their housing market (~30% of China's GDP) which is also fueled with debt. Look at what is happening to their financial and real estate sector due to the Evergrande scandal and this is 100% self-inflicted without any pressure from the West. China's exports account for ~20% of their GDP. So now imagine what would happen when China loses access to global capital markets, loses foreign direct investments, loses exports due to sanctions etc... Its much easier for the rest of world to find a new solution without China through cooperation than for China to survive on their own. Their own version of facebook or google isn't going to do much when their real life economy is crumbling.