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Originally Posted by ilovebacon
so when is the best time to get a new car with all these inflated sale prices?
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That is more like a crystal ball question.
IMO, much of the reasons for the continual dealership-level premiums are due to manufacturers' ongoing inability to produce enough cars for the demand. And that in turn is due to supply chain and semiconductor issues that have been plaguing us since the pandemic.
Honda has indicated that foresee the semiconductor issue easing (for them) in the 2nd half of 2023. I think they are either too optimistic, or have signed some sort of semiconductor supply contract to ensure a smoother operation. But overall, I don't really see the semiconductor situation easing until more of the new US semiconductor plans come online, and that is still a good 2 - 3 years away. And even then, the problem may not get resolved because I think China is involved in the early steps in the raw material to silicon wafer production, and the Western World isn't exactly on friendly terms with China right now.
IMO, for things to get back to normal, the World needs to get itself into a state where manufacturing wouldn't be so dependent on China. Things are moving in that direction, but we are far from being there.
If the world heads into a recession though, prices will soften a bit, but that is only due to lower demand and not any improvements on the supply side, and the supply side is where the real problem is right now.