@lamboda, sounds like you have a pretty good insight, but if I could push back on some of your ideas...
I don't think Buffet times the market at all, he's said many times he doesn't know how to time the market and if he did, he would be a lot richer (ironic, I know). His last blunder was when he literally sold his airline stocks at the lowest point possible during covid because his outlook on that industry changed. Buffet just buys positions he feels will outperform in the long term as long as their evaluation is fair. He doesn't time the market, he just buys businesses at what he thinks is a fair evaluation. Look at his initial Apple purchase, he was buying at all time highs, CNBC "Experts" were questioning his buy at that time because of their evaluation, if he was timing the market, he wouldn't have bought, but he bought because his evaluation of apple at that time was still favourable and it wasn't solely dependent on the stock price.
It's super hard to time the market and the people I know who use TA and Macro may have some insight in the short term, but in the long run I don't see their portfolio outperforming the S&P. Buffet literally made this bet already (
https://www.investopedia.com/article...-brka-brkb.asp)
As far as I know, Buffet doesn't really give bailouts. During the financial crisis of 2008 he didn't help out anyone and during the latest regional bank crisis he didn't help anyone. I was surprised he didn't buy any of the banks in this last fiasco because he was on record saying during 2008 he should have bought fannie mae or freddie mac as they were pennies on the dollar and he should pulled the trigger but even he got worried, so I was sure he was going to pick up some cheap banks this time around, but he didn't.
Also, the latest regional banking crisis was not a common event. It's not like these banks were being so egregious like they were in 2008, these banks simply bought bonds that on paper went negative because we had the biggest rise in interest rates in history and they didn't have the liquidity to secure peoples deposits because there was a run on the bank. To me, it was more of a black swan event.
It also depends on what your definition of a hard landing is. Hard landings to me are just economic slow downs/recessions, which is a normal part of the market cycle, so it should be expected and encouraged for a healthy market. The market can't go up or down in straight line. I'm still buying on a consistent basis and i'm expecting my portfolio to fund my retirement in 15 years. I have friends who are sitting on cash right now and I think they're going to miss the next run up.