Quote:
Originally Posted by AstulzerRZD
Short term, sure.
They're 1 cycle behind (4 years), not too hard to catch up.
Long term, they're going to get fucked!
They're going to be 2 cycles behind in their product cost and capability.
USA is really the only holdout on EVs - EU, Asia, and LATAM are already there.
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Second this. Many people have no idea how far behind legacy automakers are.
If you have visited China lately, out of every 10 new cars you see on road or parking lot (made within the last 5yrs), 8 are probably EV or heavy PHEV (as in EV with gas range booster).
These aren't your golf-kart EVs, but Tesla/BMW i*/Benz EQ* comparable in term of performance or interior.
There is a reason why China is no longer the sweet market for legacy automakers. If you check the news, pretty much EVERY legacy automaker is having trouble in China. Huge YoY decline in both top and bottom line. And even slashing prices sometimes by half didn't help.
People are just no longer buying legacy cars when you can get similar or better car for less $$$.
Legacy automaker is too short-sighted. My prediction is that if tariff is somehow worked out, at least 1 of the legacy automakers would be bought out by Chinese EV company where they are stripped of everything (factory, union... etc) and only the brand and distribution network would continue within the next 5yrs.
Brands such as Mazda, Nissan or Renault are specially vulnerable because they have low market cap and their business aren't doing good to begin with. A few bad quarters and they could run out of working capital and become easy target for takeover.