REVscene - Vancouver Automotive Forum

TouringTeg · 12-08-2011, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by no_clue

If Israel says "fuck it" and bombs Iran, I wonder how the stock market will react?
Besides fuel commodities shooting up.

I'm wondering if it will cause oil prices to rocket and cause a spike in SU

Iceman-19 · 12-08-2011, 06:53 PM

I have 3 grand into CPT right now, was going to put another 1200 into it, what do you guys think? It's a large coal mine in Hinton, ab. Closed at 1.67 today, a good portion of my shares were purchased at 1.36. Hasn't even opened yet.
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strykn · 12-08-2011, 07:19 PM

you still holding CUU? Lol

... i'm getting fed up with all this european shit fuck either collapse or fix it stop playing chicken! dumb ass ecb doesnt understand you either print or markets fall fckiing just PRINT ALREADY

TouringTeg · 12-08-2011, 07:23 PM

I keep expecting something big from the ECB but they continue to mess around.

bbbj · 12-08-2011, 07:46 PM

Lol after jason's first post about cll I did some research then bought some at .63 on monday

needed this down on everything else lol
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Carl Johnson · 12-08-2011, 07:51 PM

Usual Europe bullshit aside. Anyone else watching the U.S. drone that is captured in Iran right now and have view on how the situation could develop the next few weeks? We know the Chinese and Russians have great interest in it. If they are able to hack into the on board system, this could be a huge blow to the entire U.S. military network. Of course I am just speculating but longer the drone is in Iran's hand the bigger the risk they will get the information they want out of it.

To no_clue, if oil shoots up to $120 - 140 per barrel because some kind of military conformation in Middle East, I say just go back and take a look at Summer of 2008. In this economy, the last thing we need is higher oil prices.

shawnly1000 · 12-08-2011, 08:01 PM

JMHO, it's not the real drone:

1) it looks completely unscratched, the drones fly high and are probably not designed to stay in tact from a fall that high
2) why'd it take a week to release a video
3) no video/photos of the crash site

One thing that may indicate some more bearishness, yesterday there was huge volume in GLD sept 2010 calls in the 200/210 range
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SiRV · 12-08-2011, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

Remember to book profits, always healthy to book profits. The buyout prices/posts are starting to sound CUU-ish.

Exactly my thoughts.. I think I'd be happy pulling out at $1.20..

Whats with everyone on POT though? It only dived a 3-4% points today, it fluctuates that much every couple days anyway. If you look at the YTD, it was at this level earlier this year Jan/Feb'ish.. managed to peak out close to 60.. hold it long enough, cash out then.. shouldn't be more than another 6 months

Maybe I'm not feeling it as much b/c I only have a hundred shares in POT... so the decline over the past few days has only been a 400$ hit

Carl Johnson · 12-08-2011, 11:09 PM

Don't have a particular view on POT. Not that is necessary anyways. Just go to Finviz Heat Map and you will see why. However it would be a big mistake if you think a 3-4% move in a stock on any given day is normal. These extreme swings happen when the market is sick.

DaFonz · 12-09-2011, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Stolen from the boards, here is a pretty basic explanation on why I am holding a long position on CLL. It's not a matter of speculation, it's math and economics... predictions for tomorrow are another big volume day (10mil+) and a share price peaking at not less than $1.20...

RJ came out with an update this morning about CLL and they're estimating a $1.04 NAV per share.

Quote:

Under strip pricing and using our production profile assumptions, we estimate
a net asset value of $1.04 per share – we’ve provided a breakdown of our NAV
and assumptions in the following pages. An absolutely critical consideration
with Connacher is that given the company’s significant debt levels (2012E
debt/cash flow of 7.2x), small changes in model assumptions have very
meaningful impacts on the resulting equity value. For example, keeping
everything else constant but moving oil price up by US$10/bbl would increase
our NAV to $1.50 per share.

There is no question that current oil prices coupled with narrow differentials
and low natural gas prices are a boon – however, even so, the company is faced
with a number of near-term challenges: production at Pod One and Algar has
been lacklustre relative to nameplate capacity, results from the conventional
portfolio have been inconclusive limiting its potential value, no budget in 2012
allotted for proving up assets, the cash crunch of the $100 mln convertible
debenture in June 2012, and in our view, a very limited set of options to grow
the oil sands portfolio – particularly in a looming inflationary environment for
the sector.

suzuka84 · 12-09-2011, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

Usual Europe bullshit aside. Anyone else watching the U.S. drone that is captured in Iran right now and have view on how the situation could develop the next few weeks? We know the Chinese and Russians have great interest in it. If they are able to hack into the on board system, this could be a huge blow to the entire U.S. military network. Of course I am just speculating but longer the drone is in Iran's hand the bigger the risk they will get the information they want out of it.

To no_clue, if oil shoots up to $120 - 140 per barrel because some kind of military conformation in Middle East, I say just go back and take a look at Summer of 2008. In this economy, the last thing we need is higher oil prices.

the terrorists were already able to hack into US drones with off the shelf components, it's nothing new.

suzuka84 · 12-09-2011, 09:25 AM

looks like somebody leaked the CLL deal early

no_clue · 12-09-2011, 10:43 AM

hmm POT keeps going down... tempting

waddy41 · 12-09-2011, 11:25 AM

falling knife?
My POT swing trade turned into a long term hold..
now I'm just writing covered calls monthly to generate a little extra income..

strykn · 12-09-2011, 11:42 AM

watch cll sell off to .50 ... #pumpanddump

3klipze · 12-09-2011, 11:48 AM

Strykn. Iirc . U played pharma companies right ? What are your thoughts on ARNA ?
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strykn · 12-09-2011, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3klipze

Strykn. Iirc . U played pharma companies right ? What are your thoughts on ARNA ?
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its a piece of shit getting pumped by leerink.... their drug causes brain cancer in rats.

ill be opening a short position if it hits 2.40-2.50

jasonturbo · 12-09-2011, 02:36 PM

CLL up 2% today.

After the surge yesterday I really expected to see share value trend lower with a rapid sell off towards the end of the day... turns out it would be fairly stable all day with large volume at 15mil+.

I can't believe it's legal to make a public statement about an offer to acquire all outstanding shares and not be forced to disclose the details of said offer. IMO it's a slime ball move, but doesn't change my view of the companies long term assets, so I stay put for the time being.

There seems to be two schools of thought with CLL, those who believe buyout will be a max of 1$, and those who believe 3.50$ is minimum value on buyout.... time will tell.

Can't wait til this drama is over and I can get back into the safety of Suncor!

3klipze · 12-09-2011, 02:39 PM

Same idea on my mind, friend keeps talking about it because he gained a bit doing swing trade, and he said he might be in for a long term

been riding AEN for a while now tho ! aww yeah.

Quote:

Originally Posted by strykn

its a piece of shit getting pumped by leerink.... their drug causes brain cancer in rats.

ill be opening a short position if it hits 2.40-2.50

TouringTeg · 12-09-2011, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

CLL up 2% today.

After the surge yesterday I really expected to see share value trend lower with a rapid sell off towards the end of the day... turns out it would be fairly stable all day with large volume at 15mil+.

I can't believe it's legal to make a public statement about an offer to acquire all outstanding shares and not be forced to disclose the details of said offer. IMO it's a slime ball move, but doesn't change my view of the companies long term assets, so I stay put for the time being.

There seems to be two schools of thought with CLL, those who believe buyout will be a max of 1$, and those who believe 3.50$ is minimum value on buyout.... time will tell.

Can't wait til this drama is over and I can get back into the safety of Suncor!

Yep it ticked up right before closing. Picked up another 3200 CLL shares this morning @ .96 to go long.

With Christmas holidays fast approaching, it might be the new year before due diligence is completed and an agreement is made.

jasonturbo · 12-09-2011, 03:38 PM

Due to the lack of domestic trading, I hate the weekends. Does this make me crazy? lol

Jermyzy · 12-09-2011, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by waddy41

falling knife?
My POT swing trade turned into a long term hold..

Yep...same with me. Originally thought it would swing up, but now has turned into a long-term hold. Holding 400 shares at avg price of ~48 so I'm down over $2000

jasonturbo · 12-09-2011, 06:21 PM

Connacher made the Herald, here is some info on the halt...

Takeover best solution for Connacher, analyst says

Quote:

CALGARY — An unsolicited offer for Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. might be the company’s “saviour” from weighty debt that’s preventing optimization of current operations and growth, an analyst says.

With no update on the Calgary firm’s hunt for a partner to further develop its Great Divide oilsands lease expected until next year, the proposal revealed Thursday by Connacher could be the only viable near-term offer, according to Chad Friess of UBS Securities.

“I think they would prefer to have a joint venture if the terms were good, but it doesn’t look like anybody is clamouring to sign on,“ Friess told the Herald.

While Connacher’s roughly $800 million in net debt, as well as debt in 2012 forecast to outstrip cash flow by 9.3 times, do not constitute a crisis, Friess said, the company needs a capital injection if it wants to raise production or reduce operating costs.

That means a joint venture partner to bring money to the table or a cash-rich player to take Connacher out, Friess said.

Shares of Connacher halted trading Thursday so the company could issue a release about recent trading activity.

Pressed by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada to issue a statement about why its shares were soaring — up 83 per cent in the two-week run-up to the trading halt — and trading at high volumes, the company reluctantly revealed that in the midst of an ongoing search for a joint venture partner first announced in July, it had received an unsolicited offer by an unnamed party to acquire all outstanding shares of Connacher.

“Under normal circumstances, this is not something that would be press released,” said Connacher CEO Richard Gusella. “This is a proposal, it’s not a takeover bid. No, we’re not in play.”

The regulator saw that Connacher shares were moving up as the broader market was losing ground, including other energy stocks, Gusella said, arguing there are “good and balanced” reasons for the steady rise, namely that Connacher has been unfairly beaten down over its debt and that prices for bitumen, which the firm produces, have increased by more than 50 per cent since the third quarter. He dismissed any suggestion of insider trading.

“It had nothing to do with us. We had a blackout on ever since we received that letter.”

Connacher’s board has appointed an adviser and legal counsel to evaluate the acquisition while the joint venture process continues. Connacher wants a partner to help fund a 20,000-barrel-per-day expansion at its Great Divide oilsands lease — where the company has two producing assets — and to pursue expansion on two conventional properties, Twining and Penhold.

Trading for Connacher, which currently produces about 14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, resumed by mid-afternoon Thursday in Toronto.

On the Thursday news, shareholder and senior noteholder West Face Capital Inc. called for a “comprehensive review of strategic alternatives” to “maximize value for all stakeholders,” typically code for putting the company up for sale — which is how Gusella took it.

“They’re entitled to their opinion,“ he said.

Counsel and secretary Alexander Singh for West Face Capital, an investment management firm, wouldn’t elaborate on the firm’s suggestion to Connacher.

Gusella said he doesn’t expect a conclusion to the joint venture process until next year.

“We’re talking to big companies that have very, very significant activities around the world in large measure. We’re on a list of candidates for capital.”

Shares of Connacher closed up two cents or 2.17 per cent Friday at 94 cents a share on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

rpenty@calgaryherald.com

Read more: Takeover best solution for Connacher, analyst says

Sky_High · 12-09-2011, 06:24 PM

CLL.....tempted

suzuka84 · 12-09-2011, 06:42 PM

high debt burden oil and gas company?

anyone of you remember a company called Opti Canada?

lots of oil sands production, huge debt burden and big technological improvement for production. What happen? China waited for the company to declare bankruptcy before swooping in and buying the assets. Look at the google message boards for OPC. Everyone averaging down in the hopes a giant will come along and buy the technology only to end up being cashed out for pennies on the dollar.