Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[AstulzerRZD]

Originally Posted by Gumby

Grade inflation is real. Tons of people with a 90+ average, but they all get a rude awakening after first year university.

Waterloo started tracking 1st year GPA to adjust submitted averages.
Some real shit schools get -20 adjustment, some better schools are like -5.

https://github.com/jdabtieu/Waterloo-Adjustment-Factors

[supafamous]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/articl...re-bmo-survey/

We're way off topic from real estate but to close the loop on saving...

Average BC resident says they need $2.2m (you totally do not BTW) to retire yet only 12% save more than $1000/mo.

For reference to have $2.2m by age 65 you need to save $1250/months starting at age 25 - $1250/mo is 15% income of someone making $100k/yr.

Good retirement calculators:
- CRA: https://www.canada.ca/en/services/be...alculator.html
- Wealthsimple: https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/t...ent-calculator

[JDMDreams]

It's not unreasonable at $1000 month, 10% annual avg, 30y starting from $0 you still end up with $2,062,843.31 your contribution is only $360,000.00. so even if you start at 30 you can retire by 60 don't forget there's cpp and oas. Gis if you do it Asian way. It's not even high risk just do S&p index, and I doubt you need $2m liquid, you're probably spending like $7-8000 a month to live comfortably even with a small mtg left. Or just go to Asia you probably can live better than here for sure on $4000 a month.

[Traum]

So here is my back of the napkin math retirement savings calculations:

retirement age: 60
dying age: 85

years alive = 85 - 60 = 25 years
months alive = 25 x 12 = 300 months

total amount of money needed if monthly spending is:
$3k -- $3k x 300 months = $900k
$4k -- $4k x 300 months = $1.2M
$5k -- $5k x 300 months = $1.5M

Conclusion -- I can't afford to live to 85, so I'll need to die sooner. Fxxk this fitness and health shxt.

[bcrdukes]

It's time to consider an annuity, folks.

[Badhobz]

Originally Posted by Traum

So here is my back of the napkin math retirement savings calculations:

retirement age: 60
dying age: 85

years alive = 85 - 60 = 25 years
months alive = 25 x 12 = 300 months

total amount of money needed if monthly spending is:
$3k -- $3k x 300 months = $900k
$4k -- $4k x 300 months = $1.2M
$5k -- $5k x 300 months = $1.5M

Conclusion -- I can't afford to live to 85, so I'll need to die sooner. Fxxk this fitness and health shxt.

Not bad if you break it down like this, i should just quit my job and retire now.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by Traum

So here is my back of the napkin math retirement savings calculations:

retirement age: 60
dying age: 85

years alive = 85 - 60 = 25 years
months alive = 25 x 12 = 300 months

total amount of money needed if monthly spending is:
$3k -- $3k x 300 months = $900k
$4k -- $4k x 300 months = $1.2M
$5k -- $5k x 300 months = $1.5M

Conclusion -- I can't afford to live to 85, so I'll need to die sooner. Fxxk this fitness and health shxt.

Sorry bro but this is a stupid way to calculate retirement savings. So what you're saying is at age 60 you're going to take out your money from investments and savings and stash it under your mattress and only take out what you need to spend?

Better way to get to the same result:
(Annual expenses today) x 25. That's it. That's a 4% withdrawal rate and a 7% assumed growth rate (3% spread is for inflation). Best part is? You don't need to wait until you are 60, you also don't need to MAID yourself at 85. If you've got 1.5M liquid and your annual expenses don't rise significantly you're set for life for any length of retirement (theoretically).

[Traum]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Better way to get to the same result:
(Annual expenses today) x 25. That's it.

I just think it is easier to visualize monthly expenses instead of annual expenses.

But hey, it's only a back of the napkin type of calculation lol~

[CivicBlues]

Monthly or Annual doesn't matter. You're missing my point. 25x your yearly expenses (or 300x your monthly expenses) doesn't set you up for a 25 year retirement, it sets you up for life.

Look up the 4% rule.

[Badhobz]

The hell with all your mumbo jumbo math. Just live day by day like gewilos and pay cheque by pay cheque. Don’t forget to accumulate credit card debt !

[supafamous]

Don't forget CPP and OAS - you can get an estimate of what you'll get via Service Canada. When I look up my estimate I'm currently forecasted to get up to $24k/year from that (I expect to end up around $16-18k since I have a large portfolio and I'm already semi-retired). CPP is very secure - it's well funded so there should be very little concern about it paying out. OAS is a bit spottier - don't be surprised to see it stop being inflation indexed at some point but there's always GIS to fall back on for those who are really poor.

If you're married and have made full contributions (or close to it) for 35 years or so you should expect something like $35-45k/yr for the two of that's inflation indexed. Tack on a $1m RRSP between the two of you and a 4% withdrawal rate and you should be fine IF you have a paid off home. A $1m RRSP by age 65 is mostly achievable by those in our generation and of most of our income levels.

Looking at my current expenses sans childcare and mortgage I only spend about $4-5k/mo in present day dollars - that's $60k/yr, maybe $70k by age 65 and I'd expect it to stay pretty flat as I age and travel less etc.

[CivicBlues]

If mumbo jumbo math means I can retire today then call me fucking Pythagoras

[bcrdukes]

Name change request for CivicBlues to Pythagoras

[Badhobz]

psshhh this all goes back to the dating thread. if you married rich, you could have retired already

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by JDMDreams

It's not unreasonable at $1000 month, 10% annual avg, 30y starting from $0 you still end up with $2,062,843.31 your contribution is only $360,000.00. so even if you start at 30 you can retire by 60 don't forget there's cpp and oas. Gis if you do it Asian way. It's not even high risk just do S&p index, and I doubt you need $2m liquid, you're probably spending like $7-8000 a month to live comfortably even with a small mtg left. Or just go to Asia you probably can live better than here for sure on $4000 a month.

10% return for the entire 30 years (and beyond) is very aggressive and not realistic - by age 50 or so it's highly advisable to trade returns for stability. At some point it's less about wealth generation than it is about wealth preservation since the money will start to be withdrawn. I don't adhere to the level of safety some advisors recommend (your age = % in bonds) but at some point you have to de-risk your portfolio to be able to fund your withdrawals - even basic rules like keeping 2 years worth in cash to weather market downturns are important for liquidity.

10% also doesn't take into consideration inflation adjustments. A realistic long term retirement fund that's inflation adjusted is more likely to return 5% per year, not 10%. If it does better then great but planning for 5% is leaves lots of room for error (and you don't really want to miss with your retirement plan).

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by Badhobz

psshhh this all goes back to the dating thread. if you married rich, you could have retired already

So why aren't you retired? Sounds like you checked all the boxes plus you're never at work anyways....

[Badhobz]

im basically retired. i only work cuz my wife can tell her relatives that im not some sort of a stay at home whino. otherwise id just bounce and leave this soul crushing gig where i do less than 2 hours of real work a week and dick off to costco and dealerships on company time.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Monthly or Annual doesn't matter. You're missing my point. 25x your yearly expenses (or 300x your monthly expenses) doesn't set you up for a 25 year retirement, it sets you up for life.

Look up the 4% rule.

FWIW, it's increasingly looking like 4.5% or even 5% withdrawals are possible but with all retirement planning you have to err on the safe side - you do not want to run out of money at age 90.

[unit]

you cant count on the stock market for your retirement that much, especially 10% historical returns.

for example the s&p was like 1400 in 1999 and was still 1400 in 2013...

[Traum]

Originally Posted by bcrdukes

Name change request for CivicBlues to Pythagoras

He doesn't want it to be just "Pythagoras". He wants it to be "fucking Pythagoras"

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by unit

you cant count on the stock market for your retirement that much, especially 10% historical returns.

for example the s&p was like 1400 in 1999 and was still 1400 in 2013...

Hence why you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket even if it is the S&P and also why 7% is used over a 30 year time horizon.

[bcrdukes]

Someone at Stern NYU has a 30 year data set on the S&P 500 for those of you who are curious of it's historic performance.

Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2024

[unit]

damn i wish i invested just $100 in the s&p back in 1928

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by unit

damn i wish i invested just $100 in the s&p back in 1928

Yeah, why didn't you? Were you stupid?

[unit]

yes and still stupid today